Those who say that Hillary is not being hurt by the email scandal need to have a look at the latest Quinnipiac Poll released on Thursday, 4/9/15. Her lead in Iowa and Colorado has vanished and she is no better than tied against all Republican candidates. In Iowa, her favorable rating is down to 45% from 49% in February.
In Virginia, whose politics are increasingly dominated by federal bureaucrats employed in next door DC, she has moved up against Bush, leading him by five points.
Expect poll after poll to echo and continue these findings. Hillary’s ratings are on a downward trajectory and will remain so even after she announces officially. She won’t get much of a bump from announcing. And any she does get will soon be overshadowed by the spreading email scandal that is engulfing her.
It is not the scandal, itself that is most important in these days a year and a half before the election. It is the secondary effect it is bound to have on Democrats who worry about Hillary’s ability to win in November. Every primary is partially an audition to determine who should fill the role of party standard bearer. The more Hillary’s ratings against possible Republican opponents drops, the more Democrats are going to second guess her candidacy.
Polls that show her wiping our any Democrat in the primaries are premature. They test a response to something that hasn’t happened yet. First you have to have the news of the scandal sink in. Then it has to move the polls of her favorability and her head to head matchup with Republican candidates. Then, and only then, can you expect her vote share against Democratic rivals to drop.
But it will.