History will undoubtedly say that the Comey announcement that the FBI is reopening its investigation into Hillary’s emails that turned the 2016 race around and brought Hillary down. But that’s a false narrative. And to grasp what is happening, we must put it aside and concentrate on the real reasons Trump began to overtook Hillary in the week leading up to Comey’s announcement on Friday, October 28th.
Polling suggests that Trump’s gains predate Comey’s announcement. Most dramatic was the heavily Democratic biased ABC poll that began the week giving Hillary a 12 point lead and ended the week with Mrs. Clinton clinging to a one point margin. Most ABC interviews were conducted well before Comey spoke.
So what happened?
• Trump’s negative ads began to hit in swing states. Until this week, Hillary’s attacks on Donald had been dominating the airwaves for months. But, during the past ten days or so, his negative ads — devastatingly effective — began to make their impact felt.
• ObamaCare premiums increases began to hit. While the full impact of the price hikes won’t be felt until after November 1st — in time for the election — the early notices that they would go up by an average of 25% with many even higher, had a big impact on the race. And Trump moved adroitly to exploit the increases in his speeches.
• Before the Comey bombshell, the drip-drip-drip of WikiLeaks emails had been taking a daily toll on Hillary’s vote share. The coup de grace was the memo from Doug Band that was written in response to Chelsea’s accusation that she had not done enough for her father. Stung by the first daughter’s charges, Band ticks off the deals that led to a $60 million personal profit for Bill Clinton, a list that vindicates the direst of the pay-for-play accusations.
• Hillary’s illness prevented her from campaigning more vigorously and her campaign staff, obtuse as ever, failed to give her new issues and material to use on hitting Donald. Once they ran out of abused women to complain about Trump, they had nothing to say.